What Indiana’s numbers in Puerto Rico show

One part of the statistics field analyzes data in order to help predict what might happen in the future. So, I decided to take a look at what some of the Hoosiers’ stats from San Juan, Puerto Rico might tell us to expect.

What did I find out?

Not much.

As we all know, Indiana lost its respective contests with Mississippi, Boston University and George Mason. But, interestingly, focusing on their numbers, the Hoosiers might not have consistent problems. Just consistency problems.

Against Boston the Hoosiers were outmatched on the glass, pulling down 20 less than the Terriers. But in its two other losses, Indiana was only at a three rebound deficit to Ole Miss, and outrebounded George Mason by five.

Too many turnovers was the story against the Ole Miss Rebels. Though forcing 19, the Hoosiers coughed the ball up 21 times leading to 26 points for the Rebels. But against Boston the Hoosiers won the turnover battle, and only turned the ball over one more time than their George Mason counterparts. Indiana outscored the Terriers in points off turnovers and matched George Mason.

Finally, against George Mason, Indiana let up 42 points in the paint while only managing 20 of its own. Against the Rebels the Hoosiers were outscored inside by eight points and outscored Boston by six.

So this post is useless. Well, maybe, but I might offer two things I did find in my number crunching: The Hoosiers need to improve their inside game and Crean, for the time being, is relying on the same starting five to handle the majority of work.

I know stats are horrible ways to predict anything in sports (I remind you of the old saying, ‘That’s why they play the game’), but here are two little illustrations I made to show my humble conclusions:

Inside Presence Relying on the starting five

35 comments

  1. Play some freakin defence. Stop standing and watching opponents drive to the hoop uncontested! It’s not a lack of energy because everybody for IU wants to be the next guy to take a crazy (undisciplined) shot.

    UNREAL (REPEATED) LACK OF EFFORT ON THE DEFENSIVE END! WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE IU NATION FOR NOT MAGNIFYING IU’S #1 ISSUE???

    I’m growing really tired of “youth” excuses regarding lack of total defensive effort (no pride needed to strap on an IU uniform these days I guess).

    Now we know why Georgetown doesn’t miss Rivers.

  2. I agree that defense is IU’s big challenge. Let’s play D and get in front of guys driving and stop letting them simply drive by hoping to block the shot. Rivers needs to stop trying to do everything and accomplishing little. Someone needs to get Pritchard moving and going for the ball. Discipline is the mantra for the rest of the team. If IU is going to play zone for gosh sakes communicate when guys are cutting through the paint and keep your heads on a swivel. I am more disappointed in IU’s approach than I am in IU’s results.

  3. It would be easy to hammer them for turnovers, poor shot selection and faltering defense but it has to be expected. They are a team of sophs and freshman trying to learn how to win and it’s just not as easy as some are making it out to be.

    There are some positives. Creek is playing very well. Watford is showing glimpses of what he can be. Elston is all the hustle we thought he would be. Rivers attacks the rim better than I could have imagined. They just haven’t figured out how to get the best possible shots and they are killing themselves from the line. Beyond that they are a donut team right now on offense and defense. Until someone steps up to at least manage the post it’s going to be a struggle.

  4. Half our team is playing out of position because Crean won’t recruit bigs. Pritchard is a natural 4, Elston and Watford are natural 3’s. I knew Crean was a bad hire from the beginning, but I gave him a chance and the results are exactly as I thought they would be.

  5. You arent convincing anyone stevie. Crean has barely started his career at IU and you think we should be contending for a national championship already.

  6. Creek turns 20 on August 19th.
    Capoblanco turns 20 on October 22nd.
    Elston turns 20 on June 22nd.
    Hulls turns 20 on April 16th
    Muniru has BEEN 20 since April 17th
    Watford turns 19 April 28th
    Rivers turns 23 on July 27th
    Verdell Jones turns 21 on June 25th
    Roth turns 21 on August 8th
    Pritchard turns 20 on August 8th
    Jawa turns 24 on March 7th
    DoombAss turned 22 on September 20

  7. We CANNNOT contiune to play Dumes for two reasons.

    One, he is the worst player on the team. He is out there bitching at the other players, and he can’t even dribble and run at the same time. This guy averages more turnovers than minutes played!

    Two, we need to move on. He was a one year stop gap. It is time to play the younger kids which Crean did on Sunday when Dumes never saw the floor in the second half.

  8. jubilee, I am not sure I understand your question correctly.
    I think what you are referring to is the fact we cannot guard anybody. One reason we are so bad is lack of intensity. The players also are out of position much of the time. It doesn’t help when Jobe is the anchor of that crap zone half the game either.

  9. stevealford,

    I agree with you that the zone is terrible. Teams score to easily underneath on the zone. I think our best chance would be to play man-to-man, but just making sure people don’t drive by us to expose our lack of size inside. Seems like we would be a lot better off having people shooting over us.

    Also, don’t deny the fact that it is very difficult to rebound out of a zone, which is another weakness we have seen.

  10. IU Grad-

    Great, now I can send the players all a birthday card when the time comes. THanks for the lively contribution.

  11. Let’s all just take a deep breath because if this is how we react after the first 6th of the season, it’s going to be very unpleasant come January. There is a long way to go Hoosier Nation. Let’s keep things in perspective.

    Remember in 2008 we lost to Northeastern and Lipscomb….at home(yikes). Lipscomb we got outscored by something like 15-20 in the second half.

    Early in the year for any team is tough, let alone a young team. In the past strong IU teams suffered defeats to Indiana State, Ball State or Butler (pre 2002 Butler). In fact, the Indiana Classic was halted after IU lost to a weak ISU Sycamore team in 1999.

    As for the youth of the team. IU Grad, I appreciate you listing the b-day’s of IU’s players to drive home the point that…….IU is indeed young. Any team with 2/3’s of the roster 20 or younger should be seen as inexperienced.

    As for stevealford, there is a disparity between lack of intensity and lack of physicality. From what I’ve seen and from what the media has touched on, lack of physicality is what IU is suffering from. This most likely is the result of a young team not “knowing” what it takes to put forth a consisent physical effort at the Division I level. Hopefully that will improve throughout this season.

    It will be interesting to see what happens with Devan Dumes. If anyone is in the Crean doghouse, it’s him. Until he shows consistent leadership, maturity and smart decision making ont he court, Devan will be grabbing some serious bench.

  12. PB-

    Way to go, bro. Good points; also a nice move to bring up those ISU games. I remember one in particular a few years ago that was especially annoying; I believe it was either Sampson’s first year or Davis’s last.

    These losses are tough, but nowhere near as tough to take as those baffling losses by overrated Sampson and Davis teams (especially Sampson). I have no problem giving these guys the benefit of the doubt, as the whole operation they are a part of is as raw and young as it gets. You might call IU an “expansion team” right now.

    What I won’t forget or forgive, however, is a team led by two all Big-10 first-teamers and NBA prospects losing to a depleted UConn team on their home court, or the same team getting 8 points out of their highly touted one year wonder in a tournament game.

  13. Apple, I enjoyed your post (so it is clear, I am not being sarcastic) – but I think IU Grad’s point is that this is a young team. Perhaps this is another way to look at it:

    % of minutes (through 5 games) played by:
    4 Walk-Ons: 3%
    6 True Freshmen (who have now played in 5 or fewer college games each): 47%
    3 True Sophomores: 25%
    2 JUCOs with 1 year each of D1 experience: 10%
    1 D1 transfer with 2 years of D1 experience: 15%

    Here is another way to cut that data:
    4 Walk-Ons 3%
    7 Players who have played 5 or fewer regular season games in an IU uniform: 62%
    5 Players who have completed 1 full season with IU: 35%

  14. Washington Apple – The list was to show that the “young players” you read about aren’t really all that young age wise.

    Besides now with them all playing years of AAU ball it’s not like it used to be when players had only played 20-25 high school games a year.

    They are exposed to game situations and top level talent all summer long for several years.

  15. First a reminder: Cam Long (21) and Luke Hancock (19) made clutch 3-pointers in the final 1:33 and the George Mason men’s basketball team held Indiana without a field goal over the final 2:57 as the Patriots topped the Hoosiers, 69-66 in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off…

    Here’s now the George Mason roster:

    1 Bennett, Paris F Oct 5, 1990 (19)
    33 Birdsong, Louis F Sep 9, 1988 (21)
    45 Cornelius, Andre G Feb 22, 1989 (20)
    3 Foster, Kevin F Jan 7, 1989 (20)
    14 Hancock, Luke F Jan 30, 1990 (19)
    20 Long, Cam G Dec 30, 1988 (21)
    22 Morrison, Mike F Oct 31, 1989 (20)
    10 Nolan, Jimmy G Oct 31, 1989 (20)
    24 Pearson, Ryan F Feb 27, 1990 (19)
    13 Tate, Isaiah G Apr 17, 1989 (20)
    4 Vaughns, Vertrail G Mar 16, 1991 (18)
    23 Whack, Rashad G Jan 22, 1991 (18)
    32 Williams, Johnny F Jul 12, 1991 (18)
    15 Wright, Sherrod G Aug 4, 1991 (18)

    From http://gomason.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/gema-m-baskbl-mtt.html

    Average for George Mason: 19.35

    Average for IU: 20.0

    Meanwhile, Tom Crean insists that his players are too young to play the fast college basketball game but he let Nick Williams and Malik Story go. He keeps saying he doesn’t have a leader but does not allow leadership to happen (“the train doesn’t stop/wait for anyone” so one day maybe it won’t wait for him).

    I have been reading on this and other blogs for months how highly ranked Tom Crean’s incoming 2009-2010 class is/was. Well, George Mason is just as young, right? So was Jim Larranga’s incoming class rated any higher than Tom Crean’s? Please let me know. Because if they weren’t my conclusion is that the Patriots simply have a better coach than IU! But who doesn’t. ๐Ÿ™

  16. First a reminder:

    Cam Long (turns 21 on Dec 30, this year) and Luke Hancock (has been 19 since Jan 30 this year) made clutch 3-pointers in the final 1:33 and the George Mason men’s basketball team held Indiana without a field goal over the final 2:57 as the Patriots topped the Hoosiers, 69-66 in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off…

    Here’s now the George Mason roster:


    1 Bennett, Paris F Oct 5, 1990 (19)
    33 Birdsong, Louis F Sep 9, 1988 (21)
    45 Cornelius, Andre G Feb 22, 1989 (20)
    3 Foster, Kevin F Jan 7, 1989 (20)
    14 Hancock, Luke F Jan 30, 1990 (19)
    20 Long, Cam G Dec 30, 1988 (21)
    22 Morrison, Mike F Oct 31, 1989 (20)
    10 Nolan, Jimmy G Oct 31, 1989 (20)
    24 Pearson, Ryan F Feb 27, 1990 (19)
    13 Tate, Isaiah G Apr 17, 1989 (20)
    4 Vaughns, Vertrail G Mar 16, 1991 (18)
    23 Whack, Rashad G Jan 22, 1991 (18)
    32 Williams, Johnny F Jul 12, 1991 (18)
    15 Wright, Sherrod G Aug 4, 1991 (18)

    Here’s the link if one needs to check.

    Average age for George Mason roster: 19.35

    Average age for IU roster: 20.0

    Meanwhile, Tom Crean insists that his players are too young to play the fast college basketball game but he let Nick Williams and Malik Story go. He keeps saying he doesn’t have a leader but does not allow leadership to happen (“the train doesn’t stop/wait for anyone” so one day maybe it won’t wait for him).

    I have been reading on this and other blogs for months how highly ranked Tom Crean’s incoming 2009-2010 class is/was. Well, George Mason is just as young, right? So was Jim Larranga’s incoming class rated any higher than Tom Crean’s? Please let me know. Because if they weren’t my conclusion is that the Patriots simply have a better coach than IU!

    But who doesn’t. ๐Ÿ™

  17. We just started the season you ninnies. Lets at least wait until midseason to evaulate the quality of our team and coach.

  18. Funny how numbers and stats can be presented to feed your cause. All the IU players are turning to the next age but the other 2 posts state their current age. Nice try: Example Creek turns 20 on August 19th,2010 so he is 19. Bottom line experience age is Freshman. This is their 1st year as college players. Robert Vaden is 24 and will be 25 in March. He was just drafted last April into the NBA. This is Eric Gordon’s 2nd year as a pro and he will just be 21 at Christmas. This year his stats are 18.9 ppg, 4 apg, and he is shooting .462 from behind the 3 point NBA line. Vaden was drafted but not playing. My point age plays only a small part in skill sets. I bet u guys ragging on coach are the same guys who ragged on Gordon and said he would not make it in the NBA. Go find another drum to beat, maybe on the Purdue blog.

  19. I bet u guys ragging on coach are the same guys who ragged on Gordon and said he would not make it in the NBA.

    Don’t bet because you’re going to lose it all. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    As for the calculations I took the time to verify they’re correct and typed them in. You want to do the same: I listen. We got beat by a younger team that didn’t allow us a field goal in the last three minutes. One year experience under the great Crean and a top 10 incoming class and George Mason and all the Puerto Rico laughed their heads off at us because of Tom Crean absolutely scandalous inability to coach. ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

    Take it easy, my man. I am afraid the worst is yet to come! ๐Ÿ˜ฏ

    As for Gordon ๐Ÿ˜Ž that’s all I can say at the moment.

  20. Tom Crean in action:

    ๐Ÿ˜ฎ ๐Ÿ™ ๐Ÿ˜ฏ ๐Ÿ˜• ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ˜ก ๐Ÿ˜ฏ ๐Ÿ˜• ๐Ÿ˜ฏ ๐Ÿ˜ฏ

  21. I liked Crean when he was hired.. but as soon as I found out that he hired Tim Buckley as an assistant.. I knew right then we had made a mistake…

    These last few games has been like watching an AAU team…

    This is only the beginning fellas…. we might not make the tournament in Crean’s 10 years..

  22. I guess if I knew who was responding it might make more since.
    But you missed my point that age is only a small item that goes into making a good player. I coached 9th graders in high school that were better at a lot of skills than Seniors,but you can’t teach
    experience you must live it. These IU players are going through
    hell right now. They were superstars on their high schools teams
    which is why they were a top 10 recruited class. They beat 2 cream puffs and then got knocked back in PR. They got to take a lesson back with them to IU. Now that they are back down to planet earth they can be coached and practiced to get better. You must 1st walk before u can run. It’s a hard lessen and their ego’s are bruised but it should make them better players and men in the long run. If u are saying that the only reason they lost in PR was because of bad coaching you are wrong. There is plenty of blame to go around and everyone from head coach to water boy has to learn from this. That is what it will take to get IU back on top. If you thought IU would just be world beaters over night you don’t know a lot about basketball or team sports. At this point I guess we can agree to disagree. You think it is all coach and I think its the whole team including coaches. I guess time will tell. I don’t think we have enough body of work to say we hired our 3rd bad coach in a row so I hope you are wrong. On the other hand IU has sure done a poor job of picking football coaches since Mallory and that covers a ton or years.

  23. Age determines nothing. Bawa is the oldest guy on the team but has least experience playing baskeball than anyone. When talking about their youth, they are refering to experience.

    CTHoosier made a nice post, to summarize it IU has 12 scholarship players and only 7 years D1 experience. And since you are so good at math Bun…….. go ahead and figure GMU for us.

  24. The age and roster arguments will just lead to paralysis by analysis gentlemen. Statistics is a tricky game. Far too many assumptions have been made with misused data. I have the right mind to run a regression based on the dependent variable of team wins with the independent variables being age of player, experience of player, AAU team record, times Dickie V refers to each player as awesome baby!, color of Erin Andrews top during the game, etc…Ha…

    Alas, putting together that post would make my head and the Hoosier Times server explode. Plus my boss would wonder why our outside vendor is working on something called “Pointless IU Basketball Blog Regression”.

    I call a truce among Hoosier Nation. Let’s just agree to disagree and let the season play out.

  25. Can the cheerleaders who blindly follow Crean no matter what please explain Crean’s post season failures to me? He has one NCAA tournament win in 9 years of coaching outside of the Wade year. Is this really acceptable to you?
    On a positive note we get to play Northwestern State next. We should be able to win that one despite the poor coaching.

  26. stevealford,

    Until you stop posting under that name, you really can’t comment regarding overrated, mediocre coaches who can’t win in the clutch…

  27. After watching the first few games, it is apparent to me that IU is lacking defensive effort. They will not win 14 games this season if the defense is not shored up. Furthermore, the zone is not working, so I would hope that Crean and the coaches take a long hard look at it and make some adjustments. I am an advocate of tough defense. Defense wins games and fuels the offense. I have faith in Crean, but my patience will dwindle if the defense does not pick up. Go IU basketball!

  28. I’m going to leave the GMU and Puerto Rico behind, gentlemen, at least for now and start working on the demons that are about to re-visit Assembly Hall soon, coming from the south (Northwestern St.)

    Last Meeting: Nov 15, 2008, W 83-65. This game will be a great way to assess how much these teams have progressed since they last met, which was “the absolute beginning of the Tom Crean era“. I promise to return to GMU and all the others as the season unfolds.

    BTW, you guys are absolutely great! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  29. IU Grad-

    Your clever little trick hides the fact that most of the players you mentioned ARE STILL 19!!!

    What the hell? If Capobianco doesn’t turn 20 until NEXT OCTOBER, why are you trying to pass him off as a 20 year old to make a point?

    Not to mention, isn’t it “league experience” that counts, not raw age data? If the point you were making were valid, than Chris Weinke would be the most successful pro QB of the modern age: he was 29 his rookie year.

    Unbelievable the way people try to manipulate statistics.

  30. We have a very, very veteran team, and there is no excuse for losing.

    MCreek turns 30 on August 19th 2020.
    Capobianco turns 30 on October 22nd 2020.
    Elston turns 30 on June 22nd 2020.

    Watford turns 29 in April of 2020.

    Bawa HAS BEEN 30 since ten years from now.

  31. Husky you’re almost trying to make me calculate the average age in days for the two teams as of the time of game in Puerto Rico. Hmmm… I have the birthdays but I don’t have the time right now. Look, I’ll do it tonight. It’s ridiculous but I will do it.

    Crean gave away Malik and Nick and kept Tijan and Bawa. He kept what he thought would help him most, I suppose. What age should I enter Tijan with: 14? 7? 2? I used his real age because that’s how long it took him to grow that 7-5 1/2 wingspan!

  32. Here is an update for the stat-spinners:

    Creek was 18 only 3 months ago.
    Capoblanco was 18 only a month ago.
    Elston was 18 only 5 months ago.
    Hulls was 18 only 8 months ago.
    Muniru was 19 only 8 months ago.
    Watford was 17 only 8 months ago.
    Rivers was 21 only 3 months ago.
    Verdell Jones was 19 only 6 months ago.
    Roth was 19 only 4 months ago.
    Pritchard was 18 only 4 months ago.
    Jawa was was 21 2 months ago.

  33. Jawa is my favorite Hoosier. Jawa Tobiru. He’s very young because he was conceived only moments ago by Office Husky whom I salute en passant.

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