KenPom.com picks Indiana No. 50, predicts 18-13 mark

You’ve probably seen this already today, but college basketball statistics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks Indiana No. 50 in his preseason rankings and predicts and 18-13 record. The overall ranks list is linked here and Indiana’s game-by-game projections and stat page is linked here.

52 comments

  1. This ups the ante for Coach TTT (Thousand Tweet Tom). The national media is finally boarding the bandwagon. Personally, I think he can do it. It’s been far too long since I’ve sat down at the bar with a cold microbrew and looked forward to having a good team taking the floor with high expectations. Bring it on! Go Hoosiers! Down with the Ducks!

  2. Should be fun. I’m not much on the tweets. I don’t care about personal beliefs. But, if he wants to do it, that’s up to him. Just show me you can recruit and coach and I’m behind you. If he’s Muslim and wins a national championship, I couldn’t be happier.
    CTC may be waaaay smarter than me, he probably is, but, personally, I’d save the personal faith stuff for my loved ones.

  3. My bigest concern is whether Watford and Jones will be willing to play ‘team’ ball. In their past seasons they have developed a tenancy to not play defense, not pass much, or play team ball. I want to say that I really like CTC but his teams, so far at IU, have lacked ‘team’ chemistry IMHO. A coach can add good players but until he gets them playing as a team, they won’t reach 18/13 IMHO. I hope this is the year IU gets back to playing as a team!!

  4. OK…Somebody who has an opinion and has access to the internet has come up with a “number/ranking.” Does anyone who is truly an IU fan care? Recruiting has been good and getting better. Though Crean’s “Rah-Rah” personality annoys me, I think he’s a Good Coach. Whether IU is any good will depend upon how they play (the eye test) and their record. Those two factors are important to me.

  5. LongAgo,
    Obviously, you’ve gotta play the games, and they don’t play games on computers. But Ken Pomeroy’s approach to college basketball is pretty fascinating and scientific. Just because he thinks IU will finish 18-13 doesn’t mean it’s actually going to happen. But if you’re going to read prognostications at all — and there are certainly reasons not to bother — just think this is a guy worth looking at.

  6. My personal opinion is that we won’t be this good. We’re going to lose more games we should’ve won than win games we should’ve lost. This team needs to learn how to WIN the close games. There have been very few games where they made the last shot to win it.

  7. KenPom, if I recall, as predicted the worst for us in the past. It’s just nice to hear something different for once.

    @Chet- Regarding the tweets, I consider Twitter obsessions to be stuff of college kids. It doesn’t seem like the most mature thing for a grown man to be doing, but heck, a lot of things don’t….

    @general tsao: fabulous. just fabulous. Best work so far.

  8. Nebraska at #53, Minny and NW #43 & 42 w/ PUke at #19? Stats based on SOS may say one thing while talent on the court could say another.

  9. I find this stuff interesting. Thanks for the links. Our average opponent is 106.03; we play 11 games against teams ranked over 106; we play 6 games against teams ranked 63-105; we play 3 games against teams ranked 35-52; we play 5 games against teams ranked 20-34; and we play 6 games against teams ranked 1-19. So 2/3 of our games are against good opponents. On the individual game projections, I see 5 key games where Pomeroy predicts a loss and I think IU can win the game: at NC St, Notre Dame at Indy, at Nebraska, at Iowa, and at MN. Win those road games and this will be a fantastic year! One problem, I added up the numbers three times on the individual game projections and came up with Pomeroy predicting a record of 19-12 NOT 18-13. What gives?

  10. This prediction is worth nothing, just a bunch of worthless hot air. Statistics my butt. Their are an infinite number of variables that could cause IU to be more or less successful than this prediction.

    I will say this however; if IU does not have a winning season this year, Crean’s seat is going to get extremely hot. He’s getting the talent now, so he needs to show significant progress. I don’t think any reasonable fan expects IU to reach the sweet 16 in 2012, but it’s completely reasonable to expect IU to have a winning record this season.

    And I hope no one is going to start using the excuse that IU’s best talent is still young. These young men play so many BB games before they get out of High School that they’re all veterans before they enter college. Yes, their physical development is not complete and they need to learn how to play together, but those factors should not stop Crean from producing a winning season.

  11. Podunker– winning season? Hell, CTC scheduled at least 6 easy victories. I guarantee you if you count only Notre Dame,Butler,Evansville,UK, and NC State plus the B1G games– he will have a losing season. The NCAA doesn’t give a darn about those walkover games. Watchout for the exhibition game– that could be a loss.

  12. BeatPU, congrats – I looked over every game and never thought to actually add them up. But, you’re right – he has 19 “W’s” and 12 “L’s” then has us 18-13 in the summary at the bottom. Kinda calls into question this guy’s mathematical genius when he can’t count to 12.

  13. Beat PU and kurk81, KenPom listed each games as W or L, but note that none of them are 100% W or L. As he looks at factors in each game, it ends up either a W or L with a percentage that it will turn out that way. That look resulted in 19 W’s. Then, to get to the final prediction of 18 W and 13 L’s, his formula takes into account the percentages. Believe me, kurk81, he can count!

  14. Getreal, we will have a winning season. You can take it to the bank. I know that probably will disappoint you, but that’s the way it’s going to be. The exhibition game could be a win or a loss. Who cares, it’s an exhibition game. An exhibition game is for trying out different combinations, making adjustments, and tinkering. Win or lose, it’s only an exhibition game. It’ll be a good game but the most important thing it will mean is that the season is about to begin! Go IU!!!

  15. get real; what team doesn’t schedule some paddy-cakes on their schedule? Have you ever studied Duke’s pre-conference schedule? Are you old enough to remember IU’s home tournament played around Christmas? Come on, that’s part of the gig for all teams.

    A winning season, no matter who’s on the schedule, is a step forward for IU. Any post-season play will be a major step in the right direction.

  16. Podunker, If I remember correctly there were two Holiday Tournaments.One was played at Market Square and one was played in Bloomington.The Hoosier Classic and The Indiana Classic. IU won all but one.

  17. It’s interesting that there are two pretty consistent schools of thought on both Coach Wilson and Coach Crean. One group feel that both coaches have pretty solid resumes and both coaches have a history of success. They feel that each coach stepped into a difficult situation but they are doing the things necessary for long term success and they are willing to be patient while they build the programs.
    The other school of thought (if it can be called that) is that neither coach should have been hired. They feel that they have done nothing to prove themselves worthy of being a Hoosier head coach and we would be better off if they were fired immediately. A common sentiment is that Steve Alford would be the answer to all questions about basketball.
    I haven’t seen many professional analysts take a position on Coach Wilson other than he was an effective coach at Oklahoma. Regarding Coach Crean, I have yet to see a basketball professional say anything negative about the man or his coaching. I frequently hear him referred to as “a great young coach” and the general consensus is that he is returning Indiana basketball to an elite program. Again, these are not my own statements but those of virtually every basketball analyst that has taken a position on the subject.
    I’m in the camp with the folks that make these kind of assessment for a living. A few years back there was large contingent of fans who felt the Colts should ignore the professional analysts and draft Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning. I betting they are the same folks that want Steve Alford.

  18. 18-13 i doubt it. i love indiana hoops and i live in kentucky so i would love to agree but the talents just not there. zeller makes a huge difference but he’s got to rest at some pont…..and in comes elston! any lead or defecit we’ve overcome will be lost in a matter of minutes. and iu fans lets tell it like it is no one can or wants to play d! its very difficult to win 18 with no d on the floor. we are one year away. we’ve waited 4 years one more wont hurt! p.s my friend watched kevin yogi ferrell play in indy and said he is relentless on d.

  19. Okay, this pains me, and will probably surprise a few people that actually read what I post… I kinda agree with Get Real on this one. I mean the Indy Exhibition statement was his usual stupid comment, and how he misses the point that everyone schedules tune-ups in the beginning is beyond me, but I agree that this could end up another losing season.

    I just think we are still 2 years away from really being a tourney-calibre team. It’s tough to get wins in the B1G, even in a “down” year. I can see one or two slip-ups against the creampuffs, and then a lot of things have to go right against good teams to scratch out another 9 or 10 wins.

    However, I just think this is all part of the process. It doesn’t sour me on Crean or the program. Like anything that has value and strength you need to have a solid foundation. I want long-term success, and for that you need stability. The current roster is good, but not great, however they will all be battle-tested veteran presences who will be able to show the 2012 class the ropes for a year. Something that none of them had the benefit of. Starting next year we will have talented classes over-lapping for the foreseeable future. We will have a system in place. We will have role players and NBA calibre talent. At that point I will start putting expectations on the program to contend for B1G titles and make NCAA runs, until then anything that comes – EVEN 18 WIN SEASONS – will be a bonus.

    Go Hoosiers!

  20. I think most IU fans think we are a year or two away. If we do have a winning season it will be due to an excellent job of coaching. No doubt, get real will be the first to admit that, as any man of character would.

  21. (7-9 wins) Stony Brook, Chattanooga, Evansville, Savannah State, Gardner-Webb, Stetson, Howard, UMBC, NC-Central

    (1-2 wins) Butler, NC State, Kentucky, Notre Dame

    (7-9) Big Ten – Michigan(2), MSU(2), Purdue(2), Illinois(1), Penn State(2), Iowa(2), Nebraska(1), Minnesota(2), Northwestern(1), Wisconsin(1), Ohio St(2)

    Based on this breakdown the range is 15 wins if things don’t go well (rocky start, injuries, can’t pull out close games) to 20 wins if everything goes spectacularly. That being said I’ll settle right in the middle with 17 regular season wins and a pity bid into the NIT after winning one game in the B1G tournament.

    Bold Prediction – Final season record = 19-16

    Bold Prediction 2 – Crean fails to reach 20 wins so GR, OldFart, and the crew call for his head on a annoyingly frequent basis. Luckily no one of consequence listens to their pleas, and the 2012 class is delivered without interruption leading to a much brighter outlook for seasons to come.

  22. get real is correct. im new here but i call em like i see em. if it were’nt for his recruiting classes he would have been fired last year. and i assure you after we only win 12 to 15 games this year he wont be fired because of next years class! its sad. i honestly can’t think of any program in the ncaa that would keep a coach who has finished dead last in conferance 3 years in a row “probation or not”. all i know is if crean cant get it done next year with or without harris he should resign! now having said that the man has had no talent since he’s been at iu and thats a fact. it will be interesting to see hoe he uses zeller this year. now next years team is going to be loaded and i expect to win 2o+ and have a respectable tourny run.

  23. 18 W’s because I am always a contrarian to anybody from Kentucky where IU is concerned. Using that philosophy I end up right many more times than I am wrong.

  24. hope you right clarion. would love to see iu win 18 but with verdell “the turnover magnet” jones and pritchard and elston statistically the worst two big men in the big ten who play over 10 min a game on the floor its just not happeneing. and chetster hoosier from KY is a small clue. imagine how hard it is to be an iu fan here. i dont think we’ve came within 20 of uk in 3 years now!!

  25. get real is a iu hater but honestly even if he is making up the star ratings for coaches why wouldn’t crean be a 3? does anyone think he’s a 4 or 5? if so your just another blind iu fan

  26. clarion using your contraion phylosophy where have you ended up right debating people from ky? that iu wouldn’t lose by 50 every year? or are you a hoosier suggesting your superior then people from ky?

  27. I will say one thing HfKy, he is superior in written English. I don’t mean to be disparaging, it’s just obvious you don’t spell check… HC doesn’t seem to make to many points that aren’t thought out or stray far from reality. So far I haven’t necessarily disagreed with anything you’ve written in here, but I do think some of it is beside the point.

    Verdell won’t be playing point this year, so I doubt we’ll be complaining as much about his TO ratio = less impact on team.

    Pritchard and Elston will also have reduced rolls as overall talent increases. When they do play they will no longer be the primary big men on the floor for the Hoosiers, so they should be a little better.

    Whether Crean is a 3-star coach or whatever doesn’t really matter. He is a 5-star recruiter, who seems to be doing it with integrity, and he has a proven track record of turning talent into wins.

    And to go back to a point you made in post #25… there is no other high profile program who is going through what IU has since Sampson. We have no barometer to see how a 4 or 5-star coach would handle it. I submit that IU would have been a little better than 12-15 wins the last couple years if their best player hadn’t had season ending injuries both years. Name another coach who has had to deal with all that and then we can have a jumping off point for comparisons.

  28. just dont feel the need to spell check when posting on the hoosier scoop. sorry if it offends anyone. im just posting what comes to mind and all that comes to mind as of late is losing. if your one of those guys who blame poor coaching, poor play and getting about 75% of effort on “what indiana has been put through” thats on you. i agree sampson put us in a bad spot but didn’t coach crean do the “stand up moral thing” and kick off every player from that team? i understand there might have been a few who deserved it but the whole team? his stupidity. second how long do you use the “look at what sampson did” excuse? first year i 100% agree. second year sure lets use it again. 3rd year another dead last finish in the big ten?? its been over 3 years dude! is it valid to use it when we have a losing season this year? let me say im seggesting that indiana fans have gotton so used to mediocrity that we have accepted that this is this mans fourth season at INDIANA and we are hoping to go 500. you seem like a smart down to earth guy who understands the game some of this has to make sense to you.

  29. and please geoff dont give me that “the players gpa wasn’t high ehough trash”. im going to assume your in your fourtys and still dream of the glory days when the student came before the athlete right? i dont care what jordan crawfords gpa was. it was good enough to play according to the ncaa. crean kicked those kids off the team to please the jaggoff kent bensons who think the players shorts are to long. i dont care about iu academic program i care about the basketball team. i went to hoosier hysteria and crean lined the team up and said your looking at a team with a 3.0 gpa!! the young guy sitting next to me said “yea and if they had a 2.0 like uk or ul we would win 30 games”. as long as their elgible who cares besides the kent bensons of the world!!

  30. Not quite Forty… couple more years. Old enough to remember the 80’s well. Isiah and Uwe are about my oldest memories.

    I agree with your entire point in post #33. I don’t care if they have a great GPA. In fact I don’t care if they graduate. Duke’s GPA ain’t even that great. I just want them to go about business in a NCAA-compliant-and-ethical way (even though I think the NCAA is full of sh*t).

    But I think there was a little more to what was going on behind the scenes when Crean came in and cleaned house. Obviously some of it was in the works already. I am sure that he probably didn’t pull the trigger of some of it – that there was an understanding that we are starting with a clean slate. You are either completely with us or you’re against us… and those players knew there was smoother sailing by transferring out.

    Do you really want me to go into how long the Crean excuses will go on again? I have stated pretty clearly in recent posts that I think we are two years away. After that there are no excuses. He’ll have talent to work with at that point, and if he doesn’t then that’s on him too. Years 1-4 build a foundation, rebuild the image, recruit your tail off… Years 5+ is for maintaining an annual contender.

    He had to clean house. To really get IU basketball tradition back he had to clean house. So now it is all about climbing back up the mountain. Neither Rome nor IU basketball tradition was built in a day. Give the man a minute to do it right. AGAIN I’ll state, if he doesn’t give us a winner once the promised talent comes in then we can thank him and send him on his way.

    Spell checking isn’t necessarily a huge deal, it just gives you a little more credibility. I assume since you post often and have opinions that credibility matters to you at least a little.

  31. Stop it. Read Crean’s tweets. He’s a holier than thou blowhole. He judged those Sampson kids as if he was hammering Jesus to the cross. There was likely less going on “behind the scenes” than what goes down in Crean’s church basement every Sunday. How about that story coming out of Happy Valley? Wow., just, wow… A thug that played for Sampson once living out of the backseat of a car look so dark in comparison.

  32. Some of those playersof the K. Sanctions regime(Bassett and Ellis)were placed into IU BB history by DD and RG(w/D. Thomas hanging by a thread). Coach Crean is not responsible for cleaning the whole house because a good portion of it was already dirt free when he arrived. I am sure he considered thoughts of reinstatement but he most likely during consultation with RG discovered more -‘s than +’s for those considerations. Jordan Crawford was asked to stay by Coach Crean. I also understand that some are not enamored with how high athletes GPA’s and teams APR’s can attain but the 19 F’s produced by a majority of that roster were not only appalling but damn insulting. After all it’s Indiana not Kentucky. We anticipate the great potential the 2012 class promises and while co-mingling that same train of thought wonder how the hell we could not have won more games in 09-10 and 10-11. Like Zeller was last season IU’s best players are in HS.

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