Busting the Bracket

Amidst all the speculation from bracketologists and bubble experts all around the nation, there is one thing we know for sure going into Selection Sunday: Indiana is in the NCAA Tournament.

Nothing should change that at this point, but the question remains, where will the Hoosiers be seeded when all is said and done?

Indiana should be a No. 4 seed and, as far as I could see, may drop to a No. 5 at the lowest. A No. 6 seed would be some serious disrespect to the Hoosiers, and I couldn’t see a situation that calls for them to be any lower than a fifth seed.

(EDIT: Vanderbilt and Florida State wins in their respective conference championships makes it more likely that IU would be pushed to a No. 5 seed, but a No. 4 is definitely still possible)

Let’s take a look at how the seeding could work out later tonight:

The No. 1 seeds

North Carolina (lock)
Syracuse (lock)
Kentucky (lock)

Possible No. 1’s: Kansas, Missouri, Michigan State, Ohio State

The winner of the Big Ten Tournament could slot into this final spot, but if the Buckeyes win, I can’t see a situation where they would make it over Kansas. The Jayhawks beat Ohio State early on in the season, albeit without Jared Sullinger, but the committee will see that head-to-head matchup. Missouri looked great in the Big 12 Championship, and Michigan State looked great against Wisconsin. If the Spartans win the Big Ten, I think we might see them lock up the final spot. Otherwise, look for Missouri to fill the void.

Possible No. 2 seeds

Ohio State
Michigan State
Missouri
Kansas
Duke

The non-No. 1 seeds should slide in here, so if I had to guess, we’ll see Ohio State, Duke, and Kansas here no matter what. From there, it’ll be either Michigan State or Missouri filling the final spot.

Possible No. 3 seeds

Michigan
Georgetown
Marquette
Baylor
Florida State
Louisville

Baylor and Michigan seem to be locks here, as the Bears looked really impressive in upsetting Kansas and Michigan won a share of the Big Ten title. From there, it starts to get more murky. Florida State won’t make the No. 3 line unless the Seminoles win against North Carolina in the ACC Tournament today. Marquette sounds like it’ll be in at a 3, and Louisville seems like it’ll make it to the No. 3 line, considering it won the Big East Tournament. Georgetown could make a convincing argument, but I think they’re more on the level of Indiana at the 4 slot.

Possible No. 4 seeds

Indiana
Georgetown
Louisville
Florida State
Wisconsin
Vanderbilt
Florida

This is where the Hoosiers should fit in, considering their big-time wins this season, and I can’t see them dropping any lower. Georgetown will definitely be a No. 4 if it’s not a No. 3 and the same can be said for Louisville. But beyond that, Florida State should at least be here if they win the ACC Tournament championship, and Vanderbilt will also probably be here if it beats Kentucky today. Beyond that, Florida had a solid performance in the SEC semifinals against Kentucky and that could give them a boost. Wisconsin went further than Indiana, and if anything knocked them off of the No. 4 line, that would be it. This will definitely be an intriguing line.

Possible No. 5 seeds

Indiana
Florida
Vanderbilt
Wisconsin
Florida
Murray State
Memphis
Vanderbilt
Wichita State

Wichita, Murray State, and Memphis are longer shots in this No. 5 spot and could (should) be on the outside looking in for this spot. Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida, and Vanderbilt are locks if they don’t get 4 seeds, in my opinion. Two or three of those teams should be on this line, so one of Wichita, Murray, and Memphis should make this slot (I’d give it to Memphis, if it were up to me).

So there you have it. If the Hoosiers get a No. 4 seed, they’ll probably be one of the lesser 4 seeds, think No. 15 or No. 16 overall. That may yield them a spot in Nashville, but I think it’s more likely that we’re looking at Indiana traveling a bit for its spot. But again, analyzing locations in bracketology is about as useless of an art as it gets. Expect a No. 4 or No. 5 seed and, if you’re hoping for a drive to the first two rounds, cross your fingers for Indiana to play at a location not named Portland or Albuquerque.

25 comments

  1. Indiana under Tom Crean has the best Non-Conference RPI in the country. Expect more of the same: Indiana under Tom Crean will be best where it is least important. Indiana under Tom Crean has made stars out of Rob Wilson and Eric Arnett, has recycled Minny, has allowed Nebraska to get their only win against a ranked opponent this season and brought home a mid-season half-a$$ coaching award. If Indiana doesn’t get a No. 1 $eed it mean$ $eriou$, but I mean $ERIOU$ di$re$pect for the great coach Tweet Crean.

  2. Tom Crean stole Tommy’s lunch money.

    It amazes me how everyone talks about how the Big Ten is by FAR the best conference but virtually NO bracket projection has a team of theirs as a # 1 seed…..certainly not a “lock” like the other teams.

    What a joke.

  3. Well, Tom, I’m not sure if you’re serious or not, but Indiana is nowhere near the No. 1 seed plateau.

  4. Indiana seems to be concensus #4 among the forecasters. The question seems to be which Region. I predict that we will be put in the same region with UNC. I also predict we will win two games and, in the third game, it will be a matchup of the Zeller brothers.

    Great job by Coach Crean this year. When was the last century that “Boob” Knight won 25 games, beating #1, #2 and #5 natioinally?

  5. Hard to believe it’s already been 10 years since a #5 seed from the Big 10 made it to the championship game. Hmmm? …10 year anniversary…?

  6. It will be a crime if Louisville or Florida State are seeded higher than the Hoosiers. Louisville beat a Syracuse team that played nobodies and played them all at home. While they have good players it’s hard to know if Syracuse is any good. Florida State beat Duke and UNC. Virginia Tech does that and can’t get a tourney bid.

    But I’m sure that, once again, the Big East and the ACC will get ridiculous seeds.

  7. Laffy – if the selection committee makes post #6 come true that would be ridiculously entertaining. Also might just give IU the extra edginess each game to make a deep run.

  8. Min(nesota )oats: Bob Knight’s teams did not beat #1, #2 and #5 in the same season because they spent most of their time actually BEING #1, #2 or #5 nationally, and frequently hanging NCAA banners in Assembly Hall.

    Got it buddy? Tom Crean coaches by happenstance. Also, didn’t he say recently that he doesn’t know how long he can keep his staff together? It’s clear that the other coaches are tired of having to do his work so he can get meaningless mid seasons awards — and we will soon see an exodus of coaches leaving Indiana, and Tom Crean, and his “coach by deflection” philosophy.

  9. Other players on the all-“soft” team:

    Jared Berggren – 6 pts on 1-7 FG and 2 rebounds in 28 minutes
    Kenny Boynton – 2 pts on 1-9 FG in 33 minutes
    Marquis Teague – 0 pts on 0-7 FG in 37 minutes
    Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – 5 points and 5 fouls in loss loss to Vandy
    Derron Lamb – 32 minutes, but only 1 reb, 0 assists, & 2-11 FG in loss to Vandy
    John Henson – 0 pts, 0 Rebs, and 0 blks costing UNC an ACC championship

    Softies…

  10. Yes, the ACC and Big East might get overseeded, but the B1G will as always have the best win percentage and probably have 2 teams in the final four.

  11. How many times did he get SPANKED by lower-seeded teams?

    Count the banners dingbat.

    It’s all that matters.

  12. Jobawa, since it is clear you are mentally handicapped, I will be nice to you. Even if some of Crean’s staff leaves after this season, it will not be because they are “tired of doing Crean’s work so he can get midseason awards”; rather, it will be because Indiana has done so well this year. The coaches who have worked underneath Crean obviously have played a large role in helping to turn around a sputtering/down program. Since Crean is likely not going anywhere, it would make sense for a sputtering/down program to grab one of Crean’s assistants to turn its program around.

  13. Geoff,

    You might be able to make a case for Burke being soft, although I disagree, but Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has all season been known as one of the most physical and tough players in the entire country, regardless of class. Can’t see how you could put him on that list ever.

  14. Can’t have that.

    I’m picking Kansas to not only beat UNC, but to win it all.

    I think Kaintuck will, but it’s against my religion to pick them in my bracket to win it all.

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