1. I assume this projection includes Watty and Cody as part of the picture.

    When was the last time IU was # 1, at any point in a season?

  2. Did they ever get a #1 ranking under Sampson? As if that might count? I know they were in the top 5 consistently but a 1?

  3. Never a #1 under Sampson. I would rather IU not be #1 starting the season. May put too much pressure on them. I want them to crush UK in Lexington first before they get the #1 ranking.

  4. It does put a target on us, but it’s good for recruiting and changing attitudes in the rest of the country. Lots of people didn’t give us the respect we deserved last season.

    I don’t expect us to stay #1 all season but it’s fun to wear the crown for a while. What really matters is the final B1G standings, and tournament results.

  5. Its high praise to start #1 pre-season (and this is a ranking bestowed before MLB has even started) but let’s all remember that the goal is to finish as the last team standing…

  6. Hey Geoff; I’ll bet you can guess what I think of this “story.”

    This type of stuff could do more harm than good, depending on how IU’s freshman handle the notoriety. I liked the chip on IU’s shoulder this year. I hope they can keep it through all of next year.

  7. I think a better question is where ESPN/Katz had UK listed last year at this time (and prior historic “way-too-early” #1’s). It’s fluff either way, but exactly how much fluff it is can be derived from historic accuracy.

  8. Remember, this doesn’t actually count as a ranking. It’s just what a couple of dudes at ESPN think right now. And as such, it’s definitely as Podunker would put it, speculative fluff, but it doesn’t advertise itself as anything other than exactly that. If you told Andy Katz, ‘This is speculative fluff.” He would answer, “Yeah, that’s kind of the point.”

  9. Well, this is a bit of consolation for me while listening to UK fan co-workers run their mouths and prove their ignorance. One even said ‘Kansas is no one.’ Hmm, let me see, they’re the second-winningest program of all time behind UK. So if #1 is UK and #2 is ‘no one,’ then in the minds of UK fans everyone but them is ‘no one.’ And they wonder why everyone else despises them.

    I could care less about predictions the day after the title game, but at least IU is back in the conversation.

  10. Yeah…Kansas has just had coaches like the inventor of basketball, James Naismith (the only losing coach they’ve ever had), Phogg Allen, Dean Smith, Larry Brown, et al, while Kaintuck has been coached by Klansmen, drunks, and criminals.

    Ironically, the most successful Klansman coach at Kaintuck, Adolph Rupp, played for Kansas.

    Four of their titles were 1948, 1949, 1951, and 1958. Their fans say we live in the past yet they tout Rupp’s 4 titles.

    To play in the NCAA tournament during most of their history they had to win an SEC title. Most Indiana high schools teams would have fared pretty well in the SEC of that era.

    On top of that, Kansas is actually a respected university. Kaintuck is a bait and tackle shop.

  11. If you want a good laugh Google famous Indiana alumni and compare it to famous Kentucky alumni.

    Who knew Lee Majors played a year of football for the Hoosiers?

  12. The class coming in is used to being considered the best. I don’t think the high preseason ranking iis a bad thing necessarily. Sets the culture that you are good and everyone will be gunning for you so you better give a full effort every game.

  13. Yogi, Jordan, Christian, Cody, Maurice, Victor, Will, Hanner, and more! = #1 Baby!

  14. Actually, that would be speculative “puff”…

    And of course this would fit the description since there are a 1000 factors that will change between now and November, and Katz isn’t the guy deciding who is #1 to start the season – the AP and the coaches do.

    So yes, definitely puff.

    Now, I’m guessing that unfortunately that UK will be preseason #1 when it all shakes out. I think that they will return Teague and Wiltjer at least, and then add what will end up being the #1 recruiting class in the country again, after Noel and Muhammed sign up this month. That would give them an almost identical team to this year with the huge benefit of additional PG experience.

    But I think IU should be right there with anyone in discussions of the best teams.

    That should cement our 2014 commitments and help in 2015, 2016….

  15. Geoff, I agree with you. Don’t have a stroke. It just seems that while I don’t necessarily like your style of delivery, I do have to respect your effort. Did you ever attempt to plug your data into a one-way or two-way ANOVA? I don’t know if it would work, or not.

  16. No, do you know of any relevant ANOVA’s I could plug my analyses into. Are there usable ANOVA’s specific to college basketball that you’re aware of? Would I have to create my own?

    Would I have to go out and spend a bunch of time preparing separate ANOVA’s for each analytical post I make?

    Bottom line… Do I need to go back to college?

  17. You girls need to settle down. Seven months until the ball is tossed into the air again at Assembly Hall. All this talk surrounding Watford going pro…Hmmm? One would think that many journalists across the country have the opinion that his game translates to the next level. Of course, journalists know nothing of the actual game. They live in the world of “puff” and sensationalism.

    Any genius with a pen working for ESPN, SI, Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, etc. can now have their meaningless blabber plastered in front hundreds of thousands potential readers their malarkey withing a nanosecond..What used to take a thousand workers in a warehouse turning out stories off printing presses for just one lucky shot a story see light of day in the daily distribution a hard copy of a city paper like the Chicago Tribune, can now be viewed by the entire country free of charge with the double click of a mouse.

    Yes, the power of the tiny mouse..Within that power, a kid can be nationally slandered as “the worst” at something, or the world can be told that the unfortunate team that has the young man in their starting rotation(e.g. The Indiana Hoosiers) will fare no better than finishing in the lower half of the Big 10 standings. And if by chance, some miracle beyond the heavens dividing, the team with the horrible kid in their starting rotation somehow gets into the NCAA tournament, they’ll never have a shot at beating the athletic teams that make up the 60+ squads deserving to share any bracket line that could eventually touch Duke.

    And let’s remember what the collective group of powerful, mouse-clicking, soothsayers of slander, dumped in front of the eyes of millions of readers their garbage with their early season perceptions of the 2011-12 Hoosiers. The same buffoons inflating the blimp of hype with news not news our almighty powerful team next season never envisioned what the Hoosiers were very capable in accomplishing this year. The contest most appearing a true national championship game this season was played between Indiana and Kentucky. Indiana was the only team that gave Kentucky any real challenge in the tournament. Without the placing of two early fouls on both Zeller and Oladipo(limiting their minutes to 27 and 20 respectively), a possible higher probability of taking home our sixth banner two days ago occurs more than any we may duplicate next season. There are no guarantees. With our dominant center and our most athletic penetrating guard strapped to the bench for nearly half the game, and one of our top guards sidelined by a season-ending knee injury on the eve of the NCAA tournamentco, we still put up 90 points on the team the geniuses could never stop slobbering all over.

    The marketing of the game has gone completely wacko. The blab began to form in the early ’70s with the dominance of Wooden at UCLA. How much the marketing drives the process to the point it can potentially influence the guys in stripes wearing whistles has always been the roadblock to keeping the game pure the overriding importance the pundits and prognosticators(many of them padding their paychecks by living in the world of petty sensationalism that no right in calling themselves “journalists”) that almost blow the foul calls one way to keep an underdog team from ever proving all the “geniuses” wrong.

    Somebody brought up the UCLA Bruins above..I would like to remind that blogger that without another zombie zebra with a “whistle of predetermination”(much like this year an IU vs. UK match-up in the Sweet 16) a ’73 Hoosiers’ team also not belonging on the same court with the mighty pair of Wooden and Walton(like the mighty pair of Calipari and Davis), was corrupted by the influencing powers, the expectations of network ratings already crunching their numbers the envisioned viewership ratings fed to them by the geniuses of speculation and “puff” that had already anointed it as a ‘given’ the UCLA Bruins would be on the court in the championship game.

  18. No, don’t go back! I got a Master’s in experimental research in education about 40 years ago. I think that I still have the book in the basement. I honestly don’t know if it can be applied with bb statistics and make it work. I knew you were a math teacher, thought you might know. I’ll have to review my notes, ha-ha!

  19. From a quick google search it’s obvious that there are basketball ANOVA’s out there. Saw one comparing Princeton offense to Syracuse I believe, but I’m not sure i’d know what the hell I was doing without a prof. by my side. Maybe my step-father the learned and published accounting professor and former Kelley School Dean could help me…

  20. 3.81 my final year in the Kelley School. So terribly misguided…So terribly out of place. God, I hated that stuffy building.

  21. Geoff there’s no way Kentucky can match the same powerful frontcourt that they had this year with their 3 top ten picks. And if you are talking about speculative puff it’s trying to predict where a recruit will commit. You can’t assume Kentucky will get those guys and even if they do IU could still be favored above them.

  22. Hmmmmmm… Pretty sure I used the words “I’m guessing”, but thanks for pointing out it was speculative…

    As far as not being able to replace their powerful front court…

    Anthony Davis – 6’10” #1 ranked recruit in 2011
    Nerlens Noel – 6’10” #1 ranked recruit in 2012

    Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – 6’7″ #4 ranked recruit in 2011, #1 SF prospect
    Shabazz Muhammad – 6’6″ #2 ranked recruit in 2012, #1 SF prospect

    Terrence Jones – 6’9″ #9 ranked recruit in 2010, Played PF in soph season
    Kyle Wiltjer – 6’9″ #19 ranked recruit in 2011, should start at PF in soph season

    Add in Alex Poythress at 6’7″ and a top 20 recruit, and Willie Cauley a 6’10” top 40 recruit and they will actually have more depth and arguably as much talent in the front court.

    If Lamb decides to go they actually have a higher rated, slightly bigger, top 15 recruit in Archie Goodwin at 6’5″ to step right in to his spot.

    So yeah, IF it turns out this way I don’t see how you could say “there is no way Kentucky can match the same powerful front court they had this year.”

    Sure, IU could still be favored above them. We beat them this year and will have more talent and experience on next year’s team. But Noel and Muhammad will almost certainly be higher rated NBA draft picks than anyone on IU… So there goes that argument you were sorta making in a round about way.

  23. Wouldn’t it be cool if all the guys from this year’s Kentucky team stayed in college and the sun burned out tomorrow and the earth was reduced to the glowing dust part of a supernova?

  24. Well i think that is a joke since they ( Espn guys wrote us off all year) I have this thought that should go all the way to Indianapolis for them to think about too. How can any college compete against a semi pro team the last three years possibly a fourth if they get the top players again. This what baffles me this coach has gotten 11 All americans in two years has anyone graduated i thought the APR was placed to do that so colleges could get hurt if they did not meet the standards. How in the world all these players graduate and how did it not hurt that team? Plus having the top players every year make it fair for all the rest of college basketball when they are playing a semi pro team every year. I do not think it is fair and if that was true then why does college basketball just turn to semi pro teams so it be easier to filter in the NBA. I am sick of watching the semi pro team get away with murder..Why other coaches do everything right do not even get mentioned for Coach of the year though i believe in my heart he is. It sad that it is going on but Indianapolis has to have red flags going off think they need to look his way. Or just hand the Championship to the semi pro team again. Cause saying we are number one is a joke we are back…but not all the way back to be able to contend for a National Championship. Just hand it to this years champion if he gets another semi pro team……

  25. Yeah, how does the APR work again? We got gigged when Sampson left but our graduation record has to be light years ahead of Kentucky. I’m pretty sure all you have to do is get a learner’s permit to graduate.

  26. You’re right, theo..The one-and-dones are killing the game. The game begins to serve nothing other than a slap in the face the concept of student/athlete where coaches with big personalities lure kids into their NBA farm systems for a one year show of dominance in the college game reserved for a choice few programs corrupting the purpose of amateur sports; no other purpose in going to college other than to put on full display their elite talent for the big bucks to soon be made at the next level.

  27. Changing expectations…

    Six months ago we were begging for an NIT invitation assuming an NCAA bid would follow next year.

    Instead we became giant slayers. We end up in the Sweet Sixteen with a real shot at the Final Four. Let’s face it, take away Kentucky (who we beat once and could have beaten twice) and we weren’t a bad bet to win it all.

    So, six months after expecting nothing and now, if CTC doesn’t deliver a title next year, there will be some calling for his head.

    Of course, they (4guards) are an idiot.

  28. “Puff,” “fluff,” and “meaningless blabber.” I like the sound of that.

    Yeah, Chet, if KY continues to dominate, it will certainly increase the pressure on Tom Crean. And just because many Hoosiers will continue to suspect (myself included) Kentucky is as crooked as a country road in Brown County, it will not provide him any relief from the weight of their expectations.

    Something’s going on with KY basketball, and it’s not kosher.

  29. Chet- no worries there. All you have to do with that crowd is bring up the fact that Bob Knight got nowhere near a championship in his last, oh, dozen years with IU, after raising expectations with 3 previous championships. The closest Knight’s players got to a championship in a decade and a half was when the old man had moved on.

  30. Just asking…

    If we are, oh let’s say, 26-5 next year, are you willing to bet that here won’t be people calling for CTC to resign?

    You know what will silence the critics (and this will only be at the end of the year)?

    An undefeated national championship team. Seriously, a two loss championship team won’t do it.

    Unless, of course, Steve Alford takes over.

    At Kentucky they’d take Anna Nicole Smith’s doctor as coach if he won the title.

    Damned ethics.

  31. Didn’t Knight’s 91-92 & 92-93 team make it to the Final Four?

    Didn’t Alan Henderson get injured late in the season of 92-93? Possibly affecting the teams results in the NCAA Tourney run?

  32. Thought these players are students first with the way he is doing it i am sure they are not students first. If they all one in done for the most part how in the world can it not affect the APR how it is now. I hope the people indianapolis is looking at what happened. Cause it will happen again and again until something happens. Might as well hand the championship to them again when the season starts. Iam sick of how the other coaches follow the rules but having a semi pro team every year in not fair. People in indianapolis need to do something how are red flags not be pop up come on.

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